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Yves right here. You might be getting a Sunday additional on the battle in Gaza and the place it appears set to be headed, given Hamas’ obvious technique, the dug in place of the US and Israel, and the up to now on-track habits of the Arab world.
John Helmer’s put up clinically and persuasively attracts conclusions that the majority commentators, together with yours really, have been loath to state clearly, maybe as a result of depicting the chance of unhealthy outcomes someway feels as if it will increase the chances they arrive to go (magical pondering cults and their lesser “intention” cousins illustrate this superstitious tendency).
Though the sooner a part of Helmer’s evaluation relies on identified information (at the least in case you’ve been paying consideration), he provides essential details about the implications of even a shortish battle with Israel’s neighbors on Israel, and the apparently-not-heretofore-reported sighting that China has naval vessels within the Persian Gulf which have anti-sub and anti-missile capabilities.
It’s not onerous to conclude from Helmer’s depiction that with the US and Israel unwilling to just accept a loss and the dearth of any adults on “our workforce” imply the chances of eventual nuclear battle are means too excessive. And in case you assume Helmer is just too pessimistic, take heed to the part from Larry Johnson within the broadcast on Decide Napolitano with Ray McGovern. Beginning at 11:40, Johnson describes how Pakistan has provided to ship a few of its nukes to Türkiye in case of a dustup with Israel.
By John Helmer, the longest repeatedly serving international correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to direct his personal bureau unbiased of single nationwide or industrial ties. Helmer has additionally been a professor of political science, and an advisor to authorities heads in Greece, the USA, and Asia. He’s the primary and solely member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to determine himself in Russia. Initially printed at Dances with Bears
Preamble
1. Since 1943 the US and its European allies, together with Germany (Olaf Scholz’s authorities, not Adolf Hitler’s), have aimed to liquidate the secular nationalist Arab management able to co-existence with the West and a state for the Jewish folks.
2. In Palestine Hamas has studied seventy-five years of classes on the impossibility of coordinating Arab state battle within the defence of the Palestine a part of the two-state answer.
3. For greater than a yr, due to this fact, Hamas has ready in well-kept secret an offensive towards Israel to realize 5 aims – the primary to display how inferior the Israeli army is, how weak, how incompetent their intelligence on the Arab world. This has been achieved by the preliminary assault of October 7.
4. The second Hamas goal has been to display the Israeli plan of ethnic cleaning of Gaza, genocide towards the Arabs, and incorporation of all Israeli-occupied territories in a single theocratic Zionist state — Quod erat demonstrandum. The third goal is to carry out towards the anticipated Israeli counterattack for lengthy sufficient to activate the Hezbollah forces on the northern Lebanon entrance; Syrian and Iranian forces on the jap Golan entrance; and the West Financial institution Palestinians, together with the Jordanian Palestinians; the latter’s targets might be US air and armoured land power bases in Jordan. Thus far, so good.
5. The ultimate Hamas aims are to compel the vacillating sheikhdoms to withstand US stress; restrict oil and fuel provides to the enemy markets; forestall regional land base and air transit rights being activated in assist of Israel — up to now, so good. And lastly, the fifth goal, to interact the pleasant nuclear powers – Russia, China – to discourage, and if essential fight US forces within the area and Israel’s menace to fireside its nuclear weapons.
Left: the brand new historical past of the 80-year US protectorate within the Arab world. Proper: Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas. On October 8, he introduced: “We are saying to all international locations, together with our Arab brothers, that this entity, which can't defend itself within the face of resistors, can't offer you any safety.”
The principles of battle
6. These aren’t within the code of secular worldwide humanitarian legislation referred to within the western media and by UN officers in assist of Israel. These guidelines have been eradicated by the destruction of two generations of Arab leaders keen to abide by them. The battle doctrine of Hamas doesn’t concede that worldwide legislation might dictate to or supersede Islamic legislation. In parallel, the battle doctrine of Israel is that Jewish and Israeli legislation supersedes each different.
This report is essentially the most complete file in English so far of the official Israel statements of genocide towards the Gaza Palestinians in intention, coverage and follow. Supply: https://ccrjustice.org/
In 1948, the United Nations Conference on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide expressly included in Article II “the intent to destroy, in entire or partly, a nationwide, ethnical, racial or non secular group”. Forty years later, in 1988, the US Congress added two qualifiers to the supply within the US prison code which defines genocide as against the law to be prosecuted if Individuals commit it. This new US legislation declared genocide is “the particular intent to destroy, in entire or in substantial half, a nationwide, ethnic, racial, or non secular group”. “Substantial half,” the statute now stated, meant “part of a gaggle of such numerical significance that the destruction or lack of that half would trigger the destruction of the group as a viable entity throughout the nation of which such group is a component.” As long as the genocidal Arab killer isn’t “particular” in intention and the a part of the folks attacked isn’t “substantial”, the killer is off the hook within the US prison code. This was a calculated US change to the crime of genocide. The US senator who drafted it and promoted it into legislation was Joseph Biden. For extra, learn The Jackals’ Marriage ceremony – web page 14-18.
7. The Hamas offensive of October 7, OPERATION AL AQSA FLOOD ( عملية طوفان الأقصى, amaliyyat ṭūfān al-ʾAqṣā), is, as its code identify signifies and within the interpretation of Islamic legislation, lawful self-defence, and the killing of Israelis, together with civilians, lawful in line with the retribution doctrine of Qisas. It’s clear there’s a Koranic injunctiontowards killing non-combatants, significantly youngsters, the infirm, the previous, and girls. When girls are combatants, as they’re within the kibbutzim, they lose their exemption; additionally youngsters, if they’re armed and skilled. So, the proof query is — what number of youngsters beneath the age of arms-bearing have been killed on the border settlements on October 7? And the way did they die – by Hamas straight, or in crossfire between Hamas and IDF? The Israelis say one factor; Hamas says nothing.
8. It’s clear the Israeli guidelines of battle enable indiscriminate killing of youngsters in offensive and defensive operations, in retribution and in collective punishment. No Palestinian Arab or Iranian is in any doubt that this has been Israeli coverage from the start; that it has all the time been US coverage to assist it; and that the destruction of Gaza is the present episode of the lengthy laid plan.
The 2-state answer
9. Zionist ideology and Israel’s structure have dominated out the two-state answer.
Supply: https://perma.cc/9PZN-DJGY
10. The Arab state supporters of the two-state answer (together with Fatah and the Palestine Nationwide Authority) can’t assist it when Gaza is being liquidated by the Israel Protection Forces (IDF), equipped by the Pentagon.
11. President Joseph Biden’s (lead picture) latest public remarks endorse Israel’s one-state answer, including his private non secular benediction — “might God defend our troops”. Till he stated that, Biden had restricted himself to invoking God’s safety of “our troops” in speeches on the Afghanistan Warfare in April 2021 and on the battle towards Russia within the Ukraine in February 2023. Earlier than Biden, it was President George Bush Jr. who claimed God on the US facet when he meant self-defence – “we’ll defend our freedom. We’ll carry freedom to others and we’ll prevail. Might God bless our nation and all who defend her.” With Biden the Christian, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken declaring himself Jewish in Israel, the battle of Israel towards Gaza is a theocratic one, a campaign. That is how it’s understood now all through the Muslim world.
12. In line with God, due to this fact, there may be solely a one-state answer – it’s both Palestine or Israel.
The present battlefield state of affairs
13. On the Gaza entrance, Hamas has fought the IDF to a standstill outdoors the Gaza border wall. The Israel Air Power has dropped about 4,000 tonnes of bombs per week, 8,000 tonnes to October 21; that’s greater than the US Air Power dropped on Afghanistan within the peak yr of 2019. Greater than 3,500 Palestinians have been killed up to now, together with at the least 1,030 youngsters and tons of of household items; greater than 12,500 folks have been injured, a million Palestinians displaced, and 1000’s of properties destroyed. About 1,200 are lacking believed to be trapped beneath the rubble. The Israeli and US authorities file, reported by the Institute for the Examine of Warfare (ISW) in Washington, paperwork the persevering with firing from Gaza into Israeli territory in what the ISW calls its “Iran updates”. A protracted IDF siege threatens to kill a number of hundred thousand Palestinians by hunger, dehydration, illness, and a mixture of artillery and aerial bombardment, whereas leaving the Hamas forces comparatively unscathed and ready to inflict the next price of casualties on the IDF than it has ever skilled.
14. On the northern entrance throughout the Lebanon border, there have been exchanges of missile, drone, anti-tank rocket, artillery, and mortar hearth between the IDF and Hezbollah. There have been casualties on each side. Border settlements on the Israeli facet have been evacuated to the south. For a abstract of the ISW reviews favouring Israel, learn this; For maps and summaries of army motion as of October 20 on the Gaza and northern fronts, in addition to the Golan and West Financial institution, click on to open.
Incident map on the northern entrance between October 12 and 17; supply: https://www.washingtonpost.com/
15. US forces on the Jordan entrance. The Israeli press has been reporting some particulars of USAF reinforcements on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base within the northeastern nook of Jordan and potential Marine deployments in Jordan. Whether or not the Marines might be moved to defend the Al-Tanf base on the Syrian facet of the border, 230 kilometres northeast of Muwaffaq Salti, isn’t identified.
Prime, proper – the US airbase at Muwaffaq Salti; supply: https://twitter.com/
In line with an Israeli report, “a squadron of U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle bombers primarily based in Britain was deployed over the weekend on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base east of the Jordanian capital of Amman. One other squadron of A-10 assault plane has additionally been deployed there.” Backside, the situation of Al-Tanf in Syria throughout the Jordanian and Iraqi borders.
16. Russian and Chinese language navy deployments. The Russian fleet primarily based at Tartous, Syria, is at sea, as reported right here. For the time being, there are as many, probably extra Chinese language vessels of the 44th Naval Escort Job Power within the Persian Gulf. The anti-surface, anti-submarine, and anti-air missile capabilities of the Kind-052D destroyer will be adopted right here, and of the Kind-054A frigate right here. In the intervening time, the importance of this Chinese language display to discourage a US-Israeli missile and plane assault on Iran has been missed within the western press and by Russian army reporters.
Prime: https://russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/
Backside: the Chinese language Protection Ministry announcement of the arrival of the destroyer Zibo and frigate Jingzhou at Kuwait on October 19.
Armageddon technique
17. US Afghanistan Warfare veteran: “Suppose Israel and the US perceive they’re dealing with an existential survival future by which they need to fight swarm assaults on three or 4 fronts — Gaza/Hamas, North/Hezbollah, Golan/Syria/Iran, and West Financial institution/Jordan, and so they calculate the Arabs have at the least a 30 to 60–day arms provide in inventory, do they calculate they’ll stand up to a multi-front offensive for sufficient time, resupplied by air from the US? In the event that they calculate that they’ll stand up to a 30-day multi-directional swarm, they need to perceive that, at a minimal, Israel’s infrastructure and financial system might be ruined. In a situation like that, even when they ‘win’, they lose. When it comes to airlifting and transport provides, we’ve already seen that the Arabs can hit Israeli army and civilian airfields, airports and seaports. Defending Israeli infrastructure with their air defence functionality is the principle mission of the strike teams the US is deploying within the jap Mediterranean and within the Purple Sea.
In line with the Pentagon on October 19, the USS Carney, part of the USS Gerald Ford group, had transited into the Purple Sea by means of the Suez Canal the day earlier than and was within the northern Purple Sea when it intercepted three land assault cruise missiles and several other drones.
Western societies like Israel can’t operate with out stable, dependable, electrical energy and communications companies. We will be sure that energy technology, transmission and distribution might be focused by the Arabs continuous. The cell towers and central communications centres might be too.”
18. Moscow supply. “When does the menace to Israel develop into so dire, they go nuclear, and after they do, towards what targets will they hearth – Hamas, Beirut, Damascus, Teheran?* The US gained’t settle for a Palestinian state so the one choice left for the Palestinians, Arabs, Iranians, probably Turks is to combat with this new type of warfare whose goal is to chop into the flesh and bones of the Israeli adversary, and make life in that state unviable. With out a Palestinian homeland, all of Israel and the Arab territories develop into a battlefield. The IDF choices then shrink to 2 – carpet bombing and mass killing of the civilian inhabitants centres on all fronts directly. If that isn’t sustainable or efficient for the Israeli-American objective, then choice 2 is to assault Lebanon, Syria and Iran to cease the stream of reinforcements. However that’s regional battle, and it may well solely be carried out by the Israelis with full US army participation. This turns into nuclear in a short time as a result of President Putin has already positioned the Kinzhal missiles in vary of the US provider fleet within the jap Mediterranean, and the Chinese language have put in their display to guard Iran. It’s apparent that the race hatred insurance policies of Biden and Netanyahu, and their perception that God has chosen them each as destroyers for his or her folks, result in the ultimate, nuclear weapons answer. The Russians and Chinese language can maximise their restricted army projection by deterring, or if want be pre-empting a nuclear assault on the Arab cities or Teheran. For this to work, the Russians and the Chinese language must say extra – loudly so there’s no mistaking what they imply.”
[*] In 1983, in dialog together with his Basic Workers, Iraq’s President Saddam Hussein stated: “the Iraqis would have the ability to stand up to three years of combating in a battle. Nevertheless, the Israelis can't stand up to one yr of combating in a battle.” In April 1990 Hussein was internet hosting Yasser Arafat of the PLO in Baghdad. “[Israel] has 240 nuclear warheads, 12 out of them for every Arab capital,” Arafat stated. Saddam replied: “I say this and I'm very calm and carrying a civilian go well with [everyone laughs]. However I say this in order that we will prepare at this degree.” Quoted in The Jackals’ Marriage ceremony, web page 16.
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