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NY Fed median anticipated y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.
Determine 1: Instantaneous CPI inflation (daring black), y/y core CPI (blue), Bloomberg consensus (inexperienced sq.), median anticipated CPI y/y CPI inflation from NY Fed (purple). December observations for CPI, core CPI 1/8/2024 Cleveland Fed nowcasts. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4. Supply: BLS, NY Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, NBER, and writer’s calculation.
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