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The recession’s begin is additional delayed as forecasted progress continues. FT article and survey outcomes: this fall/this fall progress at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (tan), FT-Sales space median survey (mild purple sq.), GDPNow 9/15 (purple sq.), St. Louis Fed Financial Information Index 9/15 (pink triangle), NY Fed nowcast 9/815(mild blue triangle), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2023Q2 second launch, Philadelphia Fed, Sales space/U.Chicago, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed by way of FRED, NY Fed.
The FT-Sales space survey (responses submitted 9/13-9/15) is extra optimistic than the August Survey of Skilled Forecasters median, by end-2023. (My median forecast was 2.2%.) The more and more optimistic outlook is in keeping with the evolution of nowcasts.
Whereas the NY Fed and Atlanta Fed nowcasts remained largely (or utterly) unchanged relative to the prior week (9/8), the St. Louis Fed information index has moved from zero progress to 1.71% (SAAR). GDPNow progress for Q3 (4.9%) stays considerably extra optimistic than the opposite nowcasts and monitoring forecasts.
When do economists imagine the following recession (as decided by the NBER BCDC) will start, given the possible progress path?
Supply: Sales space College (September 2023).
As soon as once more, the recession begin date is pushed again. The modal response (41%) is for 2025Q1 or later (is that this the equal of “gentle touchdown”?). Solely 25% peg the recession begin date in 2024H1 (which was my response).
What does the survey point out in regards to the Fed funds trajectory?
Supply: Sales space College (September 2023).
The modal response is for a peak Fed funds fee at 5.5-5.75%. For context, right here’s the modal response and 2nd highest response (5.75%-6%) proven with the trail of the Fed funds so far.
Determine 2: Fed funds fee, % (blue). September commentary for information by 9/18. Modal response for peak Fed funds shaded mild blue, second highest response bin lighter blue. Supply: Fed by way of FRED, Sales space College.
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