[ad_1]
By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Pricey affected person readers,
We’ve observed a drop-off in feedback throughout our unheard-of-ly bizarre spell of moderation points. Please remark as regular. Be assured that we’ve thrown further capability on the drawback (i.e., Yves and myself) along with our moderation group, and that though your remark might not instantly seem, it won’t languish. –lambert
Chook Music of the Day
Woodhouse’s Scrub-Jay, Cherokee Creek on the Little Snake River, Moffat, Colorado, United States. “Two cuts of calls from a pair of birds in sparse juniper forest, the one calls largely given whereas perched, and the collection of calls largely given in flight.” I selected this variant to honor P.G. Wodehouse, who I’ve begun to reread, as a palate cleanser. (Jeeves and Bertie are nice, however I feel the Blandings Citadel collection is peak Wodehouse.)
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“White Home cocaine was discovered close to the State of affairs Room and NOT within the West Wing customer entrance: Drug story modifications for the SECOND time as Secret Service now says dime bag was present in a extra ‘safe’ location” [Daily Mail]. Nicely, I ought to hope so! “Initially, dispatchers despatched to the White Home on Sunday to research the substance stated it was discovered within the library. Then it was reported to be within the West Wing foyer. Now it’s reported to be a ground beneath the foyer, in an space utilized by employees, officers, guests and VIPs.” • Hmm.
“Specialists baffled by White Home invoking Hatch Act to dodge Hunter cocaine query: ‘ridiculous’” [FOX]. “The perpetrator behind the White Home’s July snowstorm has but to be discovered.” lol. Extra: “[White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates] invoked the Hatch Act — laws that prohibits federal workers from speaking about or utilizing federal sources for marketing campaign functions — to dodge the query on former President Trump’s declare that the Colombian bam-bam belonged to the president or his son…. Former Bush administration ethics chief Richard Painter, who ran for Congress as a Democrat final cycle, advised Fox Information Digital that he has ‘given lectures on the White Home’ and printed articles on the Hatch Act, however the invoice ‘doesn’t cowl snorting cocaine.’”
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Could Trump Quickly Attain His Waterloo” [Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal]. “When you steadily have a display screen on, your impression this summer time is that each one the hungry issues are coming nearer in. The sharks are coming nearer to shore, the seashores immediately closed. Bears have been coming in nearer for years, deer too. Alligators are advancing onto the golf course and creeping out of the pond.” That’s the lead, which I may actually file below Zeitgeist Watch. Leads like which are why I’m a Nooners fan. Extra.: “This weekend at a celebration, one among Mr. Trump’s New York supporters, a former officeholder, shortly made his option to me to talk of his hero. He referred to the Abraham Accords and the financial system and stated: ‘Certainly you may admit he was a great president.’ He was all wound up, so I spoke slowly. ‘I’ll inform you what he’s: He’s a nasty man. I do know it, and if I have been a much less courteous individual I might say that you already know it, too.’ He was startled, didn’t reply, and actually took a step again. As a result of, I feel, he does comprehend it. However doesn’t ever anticipate it to be stated. A journalist in our cluster stated, musingly, ‘That was a wonderful instance of apophasis,’ the rhetorical gadget of claiming one thing by saying you’re not going to say it. All of us moved on, however that was the genuine sound of a sure political dialogue. ‘Certainly you may admit he made France nice once more.’ ‘He’s a nasty man.’ Its antecedents stretch again in historical past. Political cults are by no means good, typically rise, all the time move. Could it this time come sooner somewhat than later.” • Hmm. Should a President be “a great man”? If Males have been angels….
“Trump almost doubles fundraising in second quarter amid mounting authorized challenges” [ABC]. “Former President Donald Trump’s joint fundraising group raked in additional than $35 million between March and June of this 12 months, a marketing campaign spokesperson advised ABC Information. The second quarter haul is almost double Group Trump’s first quarter whole of $18.8 million from earlier this 12 months, an indication that the previous president’s fundraising operation is ramping up amid his mounting authorized challenges… The Bedminster fundraiser introduced him greater than $2 million in donations, and in lower than per week, the Trump marketing campaign raised $7 million from the federal indictment. Equally, Trump’s group raised $7 million inside three days of the information of his Manhattan indictment dropping.”
“DeSantis raises $20M in second quarter” [The Hill]. “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) presidential marketing campaign raised $20 million through the second quarter of 2023. The marketing campaign stated in a launch that the full, introduced in through the first six weeks that DeSantis has been within the race, is the most important first-quarter submitting from a non-incumbent Republican candidate in additional than a decade.”
* * * “Chris Christie is aware of work with Democrats. It is likely to be a legal responsibility.” [Politico]. “In each of his presidential marketing campaign launches — this 12 months and in 2016 — Christie has emphasised his bipartisan bona fides as an asset in comparison with Donald Trump and a subject of candidates crowded with governors accustomed to coping with compliant GOP legislatures. There’s only one drawback: there’s little proof GOP major voters care that the previous New Jersey governor can work throughout the aisle with Democrats.” And: “In his eight years because the Republican governor of New Jersey, Christie typically labored intently with the Democratic-led Legislature to move a number of the most consequential insurance policies of current reminiscence. He capped property tax will increase; eradicated the property tax; ; realigned the upper schooling system; overhauled the troubled police division in one of the harmful cities in America; and renewed New Jersey’s Transportation Belief Fund to help long-term infrastructure initiatives.” • Hey, possibly Christie’s the man to carry the Grand Discount over the end line!
“Most of $60M in Youngkin’s studying restoration grants went to to increased revenue households” [Richmond Times-Dispatch]. “Initially introduced as a $30 million initiative, the fund was doubled to $60 million to fulfill demand, Youngkin introduced Thursday. Lower than 1 / 4 of the households who obtained a grant have been eligible for the bigger grant that was given to college students whose household revenue doesn’t exceed 300% of the federal poverty degree. For a household of three, that threshold is $74,580. Of these, 8,247 college students certified for the $3,000 grant that was obtainable to households whose revenue doesn’t exceed 300% of the federal poverty restrict. However greater than three quarters of the scholars — 26,403 — obtained the $1,500 grant, which was obtainable to households whose revenue exceeds the brink.”
* * * “Biden’s bargain-basement marketing campaign technique” [Politico]. “Joe Biden is operating his reelection bid on a budget. The president has employed fewer than 20 marketing campaign aides. His group hasn’t but introduced a 2024 headquarters. His first political rally this 12 months was paid for by different organizations. … ‘Proper now, we’ve a fine-tuned race automotive right here. In some unspecified time in the future, we are going to construct out a giant, substantial, aggressive group and enterprise,’ [Biden campaign co-chair Jeffrey Katzenberg said’ said. ‘We don’t need to do that today. It literally would be a waste of money.’ Biden’s approach, while designed to save money, carries the risk of keeping his approval ratings at the low level where they are today. It also could limit his ability to better define the contours of the campaign at a time when the Republican field is bludgeoning each other in their own primary…. Biden’s campaign and pro-Biden super PACs have spent $7.5 million on broadcast, cable and digital ads since he launched his reelection bid, according to an analysis by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. GOP frontrunner and former President Donald Trump’s campaign and an outside group backing him have spent $16.4 million in the same time period, with the vast majority of that outlay coming from his super PAC. There are lots of potential reasons for Biden’s thriftiness. As the incumbent president, he doesn’t need to chase headlines. Because he doesn’t have a serious primary opponent, he’s not under pressure to hit the gas yet in early-voting states, either. And like previous presidents who have run for reelection, he can travel to critical battlegrounds on the taxpayer dime.”
“Why Americans aren’t giving Biden credit on improving economy, according to experts” [ABC]. “‘There’s been this unprecedented hole between what the information reveals us is occurring within the financial system and what folks assume is occurring within the financial system,’ Heidi Shierholz, president of the nonpartisan Financial Coverage Institute, advised ABC Information…. One main motive why voters will not be giving Biden credit score, economists stated, is that inflation continues to be uncomfortably excessive and wages have solely simply began to maintain up with value hikes. Powell stated final week the goal inflation price of two% shouldn’t be anticipated to be reached till 2025, and extra rate of interest hikes could possibly be in retailer to carry that information level down.”
* * * “Electoral School Scores: Count on One other Extremely Aggressive Election” [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “For the needs of those rankings, we’re contemplating a rematch of the 2020 election — Joe Biden versus Donald Trump — because the likeliest matchup, however not one that’s set in stone. Regardless of a mess of weaknesses, comparable to an approval score in simply the low 40s and widespread concern about his age and skill to do the job, Biden doesn’t have credible opposition inside his personal celebration, drawing solely fringe challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson [and Cornel West (!)]. It could be that Biden may or ought to have drawn a stronger challenger, and possibly one thing occurs that entices that type of challenger into the race. However as of now, Biden seems to be on track to renomination. Trump faces official authorized issues, particularly following his current indictment over critical allegations that he improperly retained extremely delicate authorities paperwork. Nonetheless, we’d by no means presume an precise responsible verdict on this or one other case till it truly occurs — nor are we even positive a responsible verdict would stop Trump’s renomination. It could be that the burden of Trump’s issues progressively reduces his degree of help over the course of this calendar 12 months main into subsequent 12 months’s primaries, permitting a rival to consolidate the non-Trump portion of the celebration and actually push him within the primaries. Or possibly Trump is compelled to take some form of plea deal that includes him leaving the race. These caveats apart, we see a celebration that’s nonetheless broadly comfy with Trump as its nominee. Till that modifications, he’s the favourite.” • Let the maps start!
Republican Funhouse
“The brand new energy couple taking up Wall Avenue: J.D. Vance and Elizabeth Warren” [Politico]. “Sen. J.D. Vance — the Trump-backing former enterprise capitalist — is attempting to guide Republicans in a brand new trigger: cracking down on massive banks. Following a Senate marketing campaign by which he pledged to prioritize rural America over titans of business, the Ohio lawmaker is utilizing a seat on the Banking Committee to flex his populist bona fides, teaming up with Democrats together with Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Dick Durbin of Illinois on payments that the business’s greatest gamers despise — whereas championing laws that protects smaller banks. He’s taking a lead function in advancing bipartisan proposals that may penalize financial institution executives when their corporations fail, make it more durable for big lenders to get larger by buying different banks and rein in bank card charges. Alongside the best way, he’s had some success in recruiting fellow Republicans to the trigger — creating recent complications for large financial institution lobbyists, who’re gearing as much as struggle the Vance-backed insurance policies. Warren, who enlisted Vance to construct GOP help for a invoice to claw again compensation from executives of failed banks, stated he’s been “terrific to work with.”
“Freedom Caucus members voted to oust Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. It’s unclear if it labored.” [NBC]. “Almost two weeks in the past, members of the Home Freedom Caucus took a vote to oust Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., from the ultraconservative group. It’s nonetheless unclear whether or not that vote was profitable. For the reason that June 23 Freedom Caucus assembly, Chairman Scott Perry, R-Pa., and Greene have had a number of conversations. However a Republican supply conversant in the conversations stated Perry has in a roundabout way notified Greene that she has been kicked out of the caucus…. The caucus voted on Greene, who goes by the nickname MTG, after a few of her conservative colleagues had grown livid over her help for the profitable bid by Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., for speaker and his debt ceiling take care of President Joe Biden. However the closing straw might have been her conflict final month with Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., whom she known as a ‘little b—-‘ on the Home ground.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * DiFi blazing the path for the youthful technology:
In April 2018, Mark Zuckerberg testified earlier than the Senate’s Judiciary Committee, which Feinstein sat on.
However in Jan 2018, months earlier than she purchased $250,000 in FB inventory.
Solely in Could 2018 did she disclose $META buy.
Feinstein praised $META within the listening to and is up +70%
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 4, 2023
“How Mayor Adams Took a U-Activate McGuinness Boulevard Redesign” [The City]. Leaving apart the main points, right here is the important thing paragraph: “A lot of the staffers have been advised to go away the decision, whereas the mayor and a handful of prime officers remained. After that assembly was over, staffers have been advised town needed to work to provide you with a ‘compromise proposal.’” • As we noticed yesterday, Adams’ employees actually doesn’t like him.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Nonreligious Individuals Are The New Abortion Voters” [FiveThirtyEight]. • Useful chart:
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Maskstravaganza
Actually, I’m beginning to assume that our solely answer might be some form of monumental non secular awakening:
bonus: our sufferers are sometimes 70+ years previous
— margaret (she/her) (@margaretforreal) July 4, 2023
No teachings of any main faith or any ethical philosophy I do know of would approve of that nurse’s query, or the logic that led them to ask it. It’s stunning.
Eventually, we are able to see folks’s palms once more:
I feel if surgeons simply wipe their palms on their shirts we must be good to go.
Let’s reside life.
— Jonathan Mesiano-Crookston 🌬️🔅#COV1DisAirborne (@jmcrookston) July 5, 2023
Covid is Airborne
“Results of Corsi-Rosenthal containers on indoor air contaminants: non-targeted evaluation utilizing excessive decision mass spectrometry” [Nature]. From the Summary: “Utilizing a pure experiment, we sampled indoor air earlier than and through set up of CR containers in 17 rooms inside an occupied workplace constructing. We measured VOCs and SVOCs utilizing fuel chromatography (GC) excessive decision mass spectrometry (HRMS) with electron ionization (EI) and liquid chromatography (LC) HRMS in unfavourable and optimistic electrospray ionization (ESI). We examined space depend modifications throughout vs. earlier than operation of the CR containers utilizing linear blended fashions… We used [non-targeted and suspect screening analysis (NTA and SSA] to exhibit that .”
Testing and Monitoring
“Evolution of the Pulse Ox” (PDF) [Chest]. “We’re additionally excited to announce that the Nationwide Coronary heart, Lung, and Blood Institute has just lately launched a Small Enterprise Innovation Analysis proposal (PHS2023-1 NIH/NHLBI Matter 114). The Small Enterprise Innovation Analysis provides two phases of funding to develop a novel pulse oximeter for sufferers vulnerable to desaturation, together with these recovered from COVID19. It have to be wi-fi and movement insensitive, and should interface with cellular gadgets to make userfriendly information obtainable throughout train, actions of every day dwelling, or sleep. It will assist lower obstacles of entry to pulse oximeter info by permitting steady, at-home, and unsupervised monitoring. The proposal additionally stresses the significance of topic range in measurements to keep away from systematic error in people with darker pores and skin tones.” • That is nice. I may additionally file this below “Search for the Helpers!”
Transmission
Simply to hammer on airline journey as soon as extra, requoting Taleb from Hyperlinks final week:
Systemic Threat of Pandemic through Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Observe (PDF) Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. From 2020, explicated right here at NC, nonetheless extremely germane. “It is going to value one thing to cut back mobility within the quick time period, however to fail achieve this will ultimately value every little thing—if not from this occasion, then one sooner or later.”
More true phrases–
“Dispersal patterns and affect of air journey through the international enlargement of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern” [Cell]. The Highlights:
World phylogenetic evaluation reveals dispersal of VOCs alongside worldwide flight community
Omicron unfold to 5 occasions extra nations inside 100 days of emergence than different VOCs
Delta and Omicron dispersed from secondary hubs throughout occasions of accelerating air journey
Extremely linked nations have been main international and regional exporters of VOCs
Useful maps:
See additionally “COVID-19 and Class in the US” [Naked Capitalism] and “How the Virus Received” [New York Times]. The next shouldn’t be about Covid per se, however is related to airline dealing with of biohazards typically–
“Airline passenger finds airplane ground soaked in blood” [CNN]. “However what [Habib Battah] did discover beneath the cat carriers was a moist stain on the ground – about 20 inches lengthy and extensive, he says. He flagged down a passing flight attendant. ‘I stated it smells like merde – s**t. She handed me moist wipes. I began wiping and it was crimson – blood crimson. And it stored arising crimson. I used to be like, ‘What the hell is that this?’ I simply needed to see what it was. After some time, one of many flight attendants stated, ‘You’d higher go wash your palms, and listed here are some gloves.” As Battah was cleansing, the flight attendant had handed the message on to her coworkers, and the captain was radioing Paris, asking what on earth was the blood crimson stain below seats 30A and 30B. The information got here again from Air France HQ: it was human blood. The day earlier than, on a Paris -Boston flight, a male passenger had suffered what Battah says the crew known as a ‘hemorrhage.’ [Why? ‘Tis a mystery!] The passenger had survived, and the captain of that flight had requested that the world be cleaned for the plane’s subsequent flight again to Paris – however seemingly the cleaners had forgotten in regards to the ground.” Oh. Additionally: “The truth is, the diarrhea might have been extra hazardous than the blood. [Dr Richard Dawood, specialist in travel medicine at London’s Fleet Street Clinic] says that cleansing diarrhea with out disinfecting it – as Battah ended up doing within the galley, close to the meals preparation space – can ‘aerosolize’ its particles.” • Oh, swell. (There’s a homily on hand-washing within the piece, however nothing on aerosols.) Good factor it wasn’t ebola….
An infection
Superspreading occasions at outside concert events:
I can not discover a correct quotation but, however I am going to spotlight this anyway:
Marzán-Rodríguez et al. “A COVID-19 Tremendous Spreader Occasion Related to an Out of doors Music Live performance—Puerto Rico, December 2021.” Puerto Rico Division of Well being.
≥3,118 Omicron instances in two Dangerous Bunny concert events. https://t.co/MG2vW5N4hH pic.twitter.com/P42pdLhGBG
— midnucas #FueraLUMA 🇵🇷 (@midnucas) April 23, 2023
For instance:
That is why we are able to’t have good issues, and why we’re nonetheless the place we’re after over 3 years pic.twitter.com/5QU5BPmrNf
— Jess (@MeetJess) July 6, 2023
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * * Anecdotal information, however tons of it:
Minimizers all the time level to one thing you may see, that’s fast, like college closing. They by no means level to something you can’t see, and is long-term; like mind injury in youngsters.
Elite Maleficence
“Received COVID from a liked one who was at work? Their employer owes you nothing, California courtroom guidelines” [CalMatters (cinta)]. “A Bay Space woodworking worker caught COVID on the job and introduced it dwelling through the peak of the pandemic. His spouse contracted the sickness and her signs have been extreme – at one level, she wanted a respirator to breathe. However she can’t declare employees’ compensation accidents from the an infection, the California Supreme Court docket dominated at this time in reply to questions from a federal appellate courtroom, as a result of whereas doing so could be an ethical good, that good is outweighed by the potential flood of litigation that may drive companies to shut, tie up courts and ship industrial insurance coverage charges skyrocketing. ‘,’ affiliate justice Carol Corrigan wrote within the ruling. ‘These and different coverage concerns lead us to conclude that employers don’t owe a tort-based obligation to nonemployees to forestall the unfold of COVID-19.’ It was the second main loss for California workers in search of compensation for COVID infections handed to members of the family. Final 12 months, a longtime worker of See’s Candies misplaced a employees’ comp declare after she contracted COVID and handed it to her husband, who died. Staff’ comp is inherently a discount, Corrigan wrote in a unanimous opinion: Staff get some assure that they’ll be paid within the occasion of an damage suffered on the job, irrespective of whether or not they have been at fault, and employers get to restrict the quantity and extent of that compensation.” • tl;dr: Dangerous for enterprise.
Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, June 29:
Lambert right here: Slight uptrend, confirmed by airport wastewater (and native wastewater samples in California). Absent a brand new variant to race although the dry tinder, I don’t see an oncoming debacle even with July 4 journey. However loads of folks will nonetheless get sick (once more).=
Variants
From CDC, July 8:
Lambert right here: EG.5 shifting like a bat out of hell, displaying unactionable nature (uselessness) of those CDC two-week-lag charts (right here, and in positivity, too). They’re not even performative!
From CDC, June 24:
Lambert right here: Undecided what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems like we’ve a “tag group,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to measurement. I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, July 1:
NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, July 5:
5.7%. Huge leap, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say.
From CDC, June 19:
Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Based mostly Genomic Surveillance” information. They are saying “maps,” however I don’t see one….
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, June 28:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,168,485 – 1,168,414 = 71 (71 * 365 = 25,915 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness).
• “The pandemic’s true loss of life toll” [The Economist]. “These information clarify that covid-19 has led to the deaths of much more folks than official statistics recommend (see our briefing). Measured by extra deaths as a share of inhabitants, most of the world’s hardest-hit nations are in Latin America. Though Russia’s official loss of life tally means that it has protected its residents tolerably properly, its numbers on whole mortality suggest that it has in truth been hit fairly exhausting by covid-19. Equally, we estimate that India’s loss of life toll is definitely within the tens of millions, somewhat than the lots of of 1000’s. On the different finish of the desk, a handful of nations have truly had fewer folks die through the pandemic than in earlier years. Though excess-deaths statistics are probably the most complete measure of the human value of covid-19, they’re solely loosely tied to the quantity of people that have been contaminated with SARS-CoV-2. As a result of the virus is a lot deadlier for older folks than it’s among the many younger, loss of life tolls are closely influenced by the age construction of a rustic’s inhabitants. ” • Yikes:
Extra Deaths
Extra deaths (The Economist), July 7:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date every day. Odd. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran eternally with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I received rid it. )
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Unemployment Charge” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment price within the US decreased barely to three.6 % in June 2023, which is decrease than Could’s seven-month excessive of three.7 % and consistent with market expectations. The jobless price has fluctuated between 3.4 % and three.7 % since March 2022, indicating a constantly tight labor market and permitting the Federal Reserve the pliability to proceed elevating rates of interest as a method to fight inflation.”
Tech: “Twitter Star Journos ‘Cautiously’ Transfer Over to Threads” [Daily Beast]. “It’s a side of social media that different journalists must undertake and develop upon as a way to survive in a aggressive subject, stated Taylor Lorenz, a tech columnist for The Washington Publish. In her protection of the content material creation area, Lorenz (roughly 349,000 Twitter followers, 46,300 Threads followers) has been an early adopter of assorted Twitter alternate options since Musk’s acquisition of the platform final November. She stated the loss of life of Vine (satirically, a Twitter-owned app) in 2017 compelled her topics, together with YouTube superstars MrBeast and Logan Paul, to study to diversify their audiences—a lesson reporters may benefit from. ‘Journalists have been so overly depending on Twitter,’ Lorenz stated. ‘That’s been a nuke legal responsibility for them for a very long time. The loss of life of Twitter is instructing journalists that you must diversify your viewers. It’s a must to have a option to attain your readers instantly, simply being slightly extra on the market on social platforms and never placing your eggs in a single basket.’ Lorenz, as produce other journalists who spoke to The Day by day Beast, stated she doesn’t remorse the period of time and vitality she’s dedicated to Twitter. The platform allowed her to interact instantly along with her viewers, serving to form story angles and determine new sources she in any other case wouldn’t have discovered. However even earlier than and through Musk’s possession, Twitter’s standing as a web-based watering gap has since been diminished, she stated. ‘I actually do really feel like Twitter has form of abdicated its function because the city sq. of the web,’ Lorenz stated. ‘It’s simply not that anymore, and I feel we’re form of determining the place the subsequent place is.’” • Wholesale censorship by the organs of state safety isn’t the very first thing I consider after I hear the phrase “city sq..”
Tech: “You’ll be able to’t put up a**, Threads is doomed” [TechCrunch]. “Within the 24 hours because it launched, Threads has doomed itself to being a vanilla platform the place manufacturers can thrive, however shitposting flounders. It’ll by no means be a real Twitter rival with such uptight moderation and no assure of anonymity. Threads, like Fb, is for customers who most likely wouldn’t have used Twitter anyway.”
Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 81 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 78 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 83 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 7 at 1:35 PM ET.
Ebook Nook
“The place be your jibes now?” [London Review of Books]. “As I learn, I assumed Wallace will need to have been taken by one thing quite simple, the smallest sensual truth: that as an IRS employee you’re issued a brand new social safety quantity, in essence a brand new id, an opportunity to start out over. The previous quantity, the previous life, ‘merely disappeared, from an identification standpoint’. A complete novel may take flesh from that truth, one in regards to the concept of bureaucratic id versus particular person id: recollections, moms, sideburn phases, the best way we see ourselves. That we’re, at our core, an individual; within the mattress of our household, a reputation; and out on the earth, a quantity. In fact, as so typically with Wallace, on precise investigation this seems to not be true. The actual fact withdraws itself, and solely the epiphany stays. Why did he flip to it? As a result of it was not possible, most likely – simply as Infinite Jest had been to him fifteen years earlier. And when he took on the not possible e book, one thing generally occurred to him: a run, a state of movement, a pure streak. As those that are susceptible to them know, these simulate actual dwelling, which we’re by some means barred from in any other case. ‘I’m deep into one thing lengthy,’ he wrote to Pietsch in 2006, ‘and it’s exhausting for me to get again into it after I’m pulled away.’ He developed a behavior of not leaving the home, in case he would possibly write that day. ‘As soon as after I pressed him,’ Pietsch stated, ‘he described engaged on the brand new novel as like wrestling sheets of balsa wooden in a excessive wind.’ As he writes in one among his most sometimes tall-tale essays, ‘By-product Sport in Twister Alley’, he was, as a ‘near-great’ junior tennis participant, at his easiest in unhealthy situations. In fiction, he creates them; he serves himself sleet, hail, solar within the eye, all for the prospect to play via them.” • I did learn Infinite Jest; terriffic portrait of Boston AA. However….
Zeitgeist Watch
“The Unusual, Contagious Historical past of Bulimia” [New York Magazine]. From 2017, nonetheless germane. “Using the prepare dwelling later that afternoon, I mull over the mechanisms that permit distinctive folks to share common expressions and related empathetic responses to 1 one other. Computerized attunement guides us to unintentional mirroring of ideas, behaviors, and emotions, phenomana that share a language perceptible on a degree of the invisible, unknowable unconscious. I contemplate the findings of Brenner-Liss, who like others, trusts that consciousness is a vessel for therapy and remedy. But, as Russell and Baker found, consciousness will exacerbate a social contagion occasion, the identical means that spreading data about bulimia helped to triple the frequency of latest instances in 10-to-39-year-old girls between the late eighties and early nineties. The speed dipped a bit as therapy caught up with the sickness, however the quantity rose steeply once more in 1992, shortly after Princess Diana publicly disclosed her battle with bulimia. Her revelation introduced super consciousness to the situation. It corresponded each with an uptick in folks in search of therapy for the primary time, in addition to an explosion of latest instances because the unusual contagion unfold farther than ever. There’s no straightforward reply right here, sadly. Stopping a social contagion generally means utilizing instruments of remission and transmission, exploiting a remedy that additionally spreads the illness. In the end, it’s a numbers sport: avoid wasting, lose others, and hope in opposition to hope that in the long run we come out forward.” • “Social contagion” is actual. Value studying in full.
Class Warfare
“The MTV technology’s unemployment drawback” [Politico]. “Staff born between 1964 and 1980 — these at the moment aged 44 to 59 — signify ‘successfully the entire improve’ in America’s unemployed inhabitants during the last half 12 months, based on analysis by Glassdoor’s Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas. As of Could, these employees represented roughly 1 / 4 of these unemployed, in comparison with lower than 20 % in late 2022. And it’s taking these employees for much longer to seek out new jobs. ‘I fear about Gen Xers who have been laid off and have both voluntarily or involuntarily taken a very long time to seek out new jobs,’ Terrazas, a former Treasury official, stated in an interview. ‘Perhaps that’s as a result of they’ve cushions the place they’ll afford the luxurious of discovering a great match. Perhaps it’s as a result of they’re simply not discovering good matches.’”
Information of the Wired
“Protesters are disabling robotaxis with site visitors cones” [Metro UK]. “A bunch of activists in San Francisco have been disabling driverless taxis by putting site visitors cones on their hoods. The group, which calls itself the ‘Week of Cone’, is protesting the unfold of robotaxi providers within the metropolis. What began with a now-viral prank on Twitter and TikTok has gained help amongst residents who’re sick of the automobiles malfunctioning and blocking site visitors. The group’s technique of turning off the robotaxis is straightforward. They place a site visitors cone on the automobile’s hood, which triggers the automotive’s sensors to assume there’s an impediment. The automotive then stops and refuses to maneuver till the cone is eliminated.”
Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MG:
MG writes: “Staying at my sister’s place within the foothills of the Sierras exterior Sacramento. Wet and sunny by turns.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on ship a examine. Thanks!
[ad_2]
Source_link