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For reference:
Determine 1: 10 year-3 month Treasury unfold (blue), and 10 yr – 2 yr unfold (tan), each in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. 3 month Treasury is secondary market charge. June statement is for information by 6/16. Supply: Treasury by way of FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Estimated possibilities for 10yr-3mo proven on this submit (by Might).
Inversions this steep haven’t occurred for many years. However, no matter hyperlink there’s between the depth of inversions and the severity of the recession shouldn’t be sturdy.
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