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CBO has launched its Funds and Financial Outlook, with projections for GDP (based mostly on knowledge from early December). That is their GDP projection based mostly on present regulation, in comparison with different forecasts (IMF, WSJ survey imply), and at this time’s GDPNow.
Determine 1: GDP as reported (daring black), CBO (blue), WSJ (brown), IMF (gentle inexperienced triangles), GDPNow (2/7/2024) (sky blue sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR, on log scale. Supply: BEA, CBO (February), WSJ (January), IMF (January), and Atlanta Fed (2/7), and writer’s calculations.
Word that each one the forecasts/projections had been made or based mostly on knowledge earlier than the discharge of 2023Q4 GDP figures.
As we speak’s GDPNow for Q1 reads 3.4% q/q AR.
Video of briefing, right here.
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