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GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts as of right this moment:
FIgure 1: GDP (daring black), WSJ January survey imply forecast (blue), Bloomberg consensus (purple sq.), GDPNow (mild blue sq.), NY Fed nowcast (pink sq.), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA GDP 2023Q4 advance launch, WSJ January survey, Bloomberg, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and creator’s calculations.
GDP launched yesterday far outstripped the WSJ imply forecasts, in addition to Bloomberg consensus. GDPNow and NY Fed nowcasts are for 3% and a couple of.8% respectively for Q1 progress (q/q AR).
One may ask whether or not the expansion price reported within the advance launch is believable, or alternatively, if the extent of exercise is precisely tracked. Determine 2 experiences GDO and the extent of GDP implied by GDP+.
FIgure 2: GDP (daring black), GDO (blue), GDP+ (brown), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Figures on proper are q/q AR progress charges. GDO estimate for 2023Q4 assumes nominal income are at 2023Q3 ranges. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Clearly, output measured alternatively shouldn’t be rising as quickly as GDP, however nonetheless stays larger than 21Q4, when some observers nervous a couple of downturn. What’s true is output measured alternatively doesn’t flip down in This autumn.
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