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GDPNow Q3 revised barely down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the identical (3.2%).
Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (tan), WSJ July imply (teal), GDPNow 9/15 (purple sq.), Goldman Sachs 9/15 (gentle inexperienced sq.), St. Louis Fed Financial Information Index 9/8 (pink triangle), NY Fed nowcast 9/8 (gentle blue triangle), all in billions Ch.2012$ SAAR. Supply: BEA 2023Q2 second launch, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, St. Louis Fed by way of FRED, NY Fed.
The development in perceived prospects is highlighted by the shift from the July WSJ (which was compiled earlier than the advance 2023Q2 launch) and the August SPF, compiled after the discharge. Each stage and development charges elevated considerably (the July CBO projection, compiled in June, is near the WSJ July forecast).
The Atlanta Fed nowcast, regardless of the drop from about 5.7% SAAR, nonetheless outpaces the SPF median, as does the GS monitoring.
Upside shock to August industrial manufacturing (+0.4% m/m vs. Bloomberg consensus +0.1%) additional helps the outlook of continued development.
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