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NEW YORK, Nov 07 (IPS) – There are 5 measures the Israeli authorities, together with the US and Saudi Arabia, ought to put in place to maneuver the peace course of ahead.
First, Israel should restrict its floor invasion to northern Gaza, as a large-scale struggle will inevitably inflict huge destruction and hundreds of casualties on each side, particularly Palestinian civilians, and put the lives of the hostages at a a lot larger threat.
Greater than the rest, it’s a harmful phantasm for anybody to imagine {that a} large-scale invasion will seize or kill all of Hamas’ leaders and senior operatives and stop it from ever reconstituting itself each as a resistance motion and as a political entity.
Lots of Hamas’ leaders haven’t lived in Gaza for years, or have lately fled. Most of Hamas’ commanders and ‘foot troopers’ are embedded within the civilian group and a large advanced of tunnels whereas mendacity in look ahead to the bottom invasion, in an effort to kill and injure a whole bunch if not hundreds of Israeli troopers.
They know full nicely that they’ll maintain huge casualties and destruction, however they’ll solely technically lose the struggle and may nonetheless reconstitute themselves whatever the immense losses they may maintain.
Israel merely can not eradicate a non secular motion or obliterate an ideology. And to recommend, as Israel’s Protection Minister Yoav Gallant lately acknowledged, that “we’ll wipe them off the face of the earth,” is an phantasm. Even when Israel manages to decapitate each senior Hamas chief, it is going to be solely a query of time when a brand new technology of Palestinian leaders will rise.
If Israel reoccupies Gaza to forestall Hamas from reconstituting itself, it is going to be sheer insanity, a quagmire from which Israel can not exit with out incurring huge casualties. Furthermore, Israel must care for two.2 million Palestinians, coupled with a relentless insurgency by Palestinian militants bent on killing and maiming Israeli troopers.
The urge for revenge and retribution following the bloodbath of 1,400 Israelis is completely comprehensible, and within the minds of many, revenge is the one approach to assuage the insufferable ache that so many Israelis live with. However then the inevitable loss of life of a whole bunch of younger Israeli troopers, ought to Israel resolve to an all-out invade Gaza, will solely add to the nationwide tragedy and provide no resolution.
The higher path for Israel is to pursue focusing on killings, and have interaction in a restricted invasion into northern Gaza, hold Hamas’ leaders on the run, and lower off the circulate of cash, whereas specializing in releasing the hostages. Israel should make it publicly and unequivocally clear that its combat is in opposition to Hamas and never in opposition to harmless Palestinian folks.
Moreover, Israel must facilitate the supply of all the essential requirements, particularly ingesting water, drugs, meals, and beneath strict monitoring by UN observers, gas to generate electrical energy and feed turbines. However since Israel can not eradicate Hamas, it will probably solely weaken it to a degree the place it’s successfully inoperative by offering another that may dramatically enhance the lives of the Palestinians and provide them a promising path for the long run.
Second, Israel ought to come to phrases with the inevitability of a Palestinian state and inform the US and Saudi Arabia that it’s prepared to barter a peace settlement with the Palestinians within the West Financial institution based mostly on a two-state resolution. I anticipate that the present Netanyahu authorities will fall and sooner maybe fairly than later, there might be a brand new authorities in Israel and a brand new Palestinian Authority within the West Financial institution.
They need to start to have interaction, beneath the auspices of the US and Saudi Arabia, in a peace course of accompanied from the onset by a means of reconciliation, each government-to-government and people-to-people, to mitigate the pervasive hatred and mistrust between the 2.
An Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement within the West Financial institution that will result in a dramatic enchancment within the residing commonplace of the inhabitants and a rising sense of safety would be the most potent weapon in opposition to Hamas. Hamas must select between becoming a member of the peace course of by first recognizing Israel’s proper to exist, or remaining beneath blockade.
The Palestinians in Gaza might be nicely conscious of the altering fortune of their brethren within the West Financial institution and won’t settle for a unbroken lifetime of despondency and despair in Gaza. Hamas being on the run and with depleting assets to ship what the folks want might be laborious pressed to vary course, or else face the wrath of the folks. Hamas’ declare that Israel is the reason for their struggling will not resonate.
Within the remaining evaluation, the creation of an unbiased Palestinian state might be strengthened and peacefully sustained by the institution of an Israeli-Palestinian-Jordanian confederation, as soon as a Palestinian state is first established.
Certainly, given the interspersed Palestinian populations within the West Financial institution, Jerusalem, Israel correct, and Jordan, the geographic proximity of the three states, their distinctive non secular affinity to Jerusalem, and their intertwined nationwide safety, it isn’t solely potential however essential to ascertain such a confederation the place all three nations will collaborate on a number of points to serve their nationwide pursuits.
Some will say that it is a manifestly naïve proposal and, in any case, that is the flawed time to speak a few two-state resolution. Naïve or not, I problem anybody to inform me what’s the different? The place does Israel go from right here?
The Palestinian downside won’t merely disappear; they don’t seem to be going anyplace and they’re extra decided as we speak than any time earlier than to unshackle themselves from the occupation. The unfolding tragedy and its inescapably horrifying penalties made the necessity for an answer ever extra pressing. And if not now, then when?
Third, the event of a serious financial program is crucial to sustaining any Israeli-Palestinian peace within the West Financial institution. What is required is a type of a Marshall Plan for the West Financial institution to be financed by the Gulf states, the US, and the EU. Such a program must be on the middle of the peace course of to alleviate the folks of their financial hardship. The West Financial institution is in determined want of higher infrastructure, colleges, and hospitals. Such nationwide tasks would additionally present job alternatives for the tens of hundreds of unemployed youths.
Furthermore, for the reason that Palestinian refugees have and proceed to play a serious position within the seek for a decision to the Israeli-Palestinian battle, an answer to the Palestinian refugees should be discovered based mostly on resettlement and/or compensation.
An answer to this and different conflicting points, together with the way forward for Jerusalem and the Israeli settlements, which have stymied peace negotiations previously and stay contentious points, will be and in reality should be resolved.
The inevitability of coexistence and the inescapable want for a peace settlement based mostly on a two-state resolution, coupled with a dedication by a brand new Israeli authorities, the Palestinian Authority, and the US’ dedication to that finish, will facilitate an answer to those conflicting points, nevertheless intractable they might appear at this juncture.
Fourth, Saudi Arabia ought to play a entrance and middle position, on the urging of the US. Saudi Arabia, which has been negotiating normalization of relations with Israel behind-the-scenes and has linked normalization to the institution of a path that may resolve the Israeli Palestinian-conflict, ought to publicly state so as soon as the struggle ends.
This won’t solely guarantee the Palestinians that they won’t be deserted, however it’s going to additionally ship a transparent message to the Israelis that they now have a historic alternative not solely to finish the Israeli-Palestinian battle however open up the door large to normalization of relations between Israel and far of the Muslim world.
The Saudis and each Arab state within the area know that so long as there isn’t a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian battle, instability will proceed to rattle the area, making normalization of relations with Israel tenuous at greatest. Furthermore, Israel should keep in mind that no matter how the Saudis and different Arab states really feel towards the Palestinians, in any violent confrontation between Israel and the Palestinians, as demonstrated within the present conflagration, they’ll at all times land on the Palestinians’ facet.
And despite the fact that the Israel-Hamas struggle began due to the horrific bloodbath of Israelis, the Arab public all through the area and past is sympathizing with the Palestinians. It’s the loss of life of hundreds of harmless Palestinians in Gaza that’s capturing headline information now, not the indescribably horrendous bloodbath of Israelis.
Thus, the larger the casualties and destruction inflicted on Gaza, the more durable it is going to be for the Saudis to renew negotiations over the normalization of relations with Israel. Normalization can function the conduit for Israeli-Palestinian peace, which might be deferred for years if not misplaced for the foreseeable future except Israel weighs fastidiously what is going to occur subsequent if the struggle spins fully uncontrolled.
However then once more, it’s as much as Israel and the US—which may have a say on this matter as Israel as we speak can not merely say NO to the US—to make sure that the struggle doesn’t cripple the prospect of normalization between Israel and different Arab states.
Fifth, the US paying lip service to the concept of a two-state resolution should now be acted upon. Successive American administrations have demonstrated constant help of Israel and the US grew to become the de facto guarantor of Israel’s nationwide safety. No US president, nevertheless, has demonstrated in phrases and deeds the US’ dedication to Israel’s safety and prosperity greater than President Biden.
His go to to Israel within the second of unprecedented nationwide grief and his dispatch of formidable American forces to the area, together with two plane carriers to discourage Israel’s sworn enemies and stop the escalation of the struggle, despatched an unambiguous therapeutic massage that has not been misplaced on Iran and Hezbollah.
Though Israel is receiving yearly $3.8 billion in navy assist from the US, at no time in latest reminiscence has Israel discovered itself so depending on the US for added navy assist and political backing. Israeli Nationwide Safety Minister Ben-Gvir’s assertion earlier this yr that Israel is “not one other star on the American flag. We’re a democracy and I anticipate the U.S. president to grasp that,” isn’t any much less silly than his boss Netanyahu, who acknowledged in March that “Israel is a sovereign nation which makes its choices by the need of its folks and never based mostly on pressures from overseas, together with from one of the best of mates.”
Now the Israeli authorities acknowledges how indispensable America is, forcing it to hear fastidiously to what President Biden is recommending, which is clearly in opposition to waging an all-out floor invasion with out very diligent consideration of what comes subsequent, which can in any other case be catastrophic by any account.
Thus, President Biden is now able, greater than any of his predecessors, to exert important affect over Israel. There isn’t any higher time for the US to formulate a plan that will start a peace course of and persist with it no matter what transpires on the bottom. By offering Israel all it wants to guard itself and keep a navy edge over its adversaries and now to prevail on this struggle, the US turns into complicit to Israel’s conduct in Gaza.
That is additionally relevant to the occupation of the West Financial institution, which is inconsistent with the US’ formal place. Due to this fact, the US ought to make it clear to Israel that given America’s unflagging help, it’s seen as a celebration to the occupation which should finish.
It’s time for the Biden administration to translate the lip service that the US has usually been paying to the two-state resolution right into a plan of motion. Upon his return from Israel, President Biden reiterated that the two-state resolution is the one real looking choice.
And nevertheless far-fetched this may occasionally appear to Israelis and Palestinians at this juncture, President Biden should start to press the problem and pave the best way for critical negotiations, albeit he has to attend for Netanyahu’s exile from the political scene, which can nicely occur before later.
The breakdown within the Israeli-Palestinian battle can daybreak a historic breakthrough to succeed in ultimately a peace settlement. There isn’t any want for even yet one more Israeli or Palestinian little one to die on the altar of misguided management on each side. The Israeli and the Palestinian publics should rise in unison pour into the streets by the a whole bunch of hundreds and scream:
Sufficient is Sufficient.
Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of worldwide relations on the Middle for International Affairs at New York College (NYU). He teaches programs on worldwide negotiation and Center Japanese research.
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